Chmura Recession Monitor Through June 2019: 35%
Economic growth in the United States has generally been modest to moderate since the recovery began in the 3rd quarter of 2009. After increasing at a 4.2% annual rate in the 2nd quarter of 2018, real GDP rose at a 3.4% annual rate in the 3rd quarter as growth in consumer spending remained strong and a healthy contribution to growth from change in private inventories offset a subtraction from trade. Due to the 9.2% drop in the S&P 500 in December and the narrowing yield spread, the probability of recession jumped to 35% through June 2019.
- Categories:
- Economy